FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 155
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 03 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  ONLY SUBFLARES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED TODAY, PRIMARILY FROM REGION 5027 (S24W82) WHICH
IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE WEST LIMB.  BESIDES 5027, THERE ARE 5
OTHER SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK INCLUDING NEW REGION 5035
(N14W28) WHICH IS EMERGING RAPIDLY.  REGION 5032 (N18E13)
DEVELOPED INTERMEDIATE SPOTS OF BOTH POLARITIES AND IS NOW
THE MOST INTERESTING REGION OBSERVABLE.  SURGING ON THE WEST
LIMB NEAR S23 MARKED THE DEPARTURE OF REGION 5028; THE EAST
LIMB WAS QUIET.  A LARGE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LATE ON 2 JUNE.  ITS POSITION ON 1 JUNE
AT 1430 UT WAS APPROXIMATELY S36W28 TO S50W00.  MOST OF THE
FILAMENT HAD FADED BY 02 JUNE 1700 UT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LOW.  REGIONS 5032 AND 5027 ARE THE ONLY REGIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE ON 31 MAY.  QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON 6 JUNE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
CLASS M    25/05/05
CLASS X    02/01/01
PROTON     02/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUN  145
PREDICTED   04 JUN-06 JUN  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUN  120
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 02 JUN  006/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN  004/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN  020/028-020/028-007/016