:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 May 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the period.
New Region 2070 (S16W61, Cro/beta) emerged on the disk overnight. All
other regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (19 - 21 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (19 - 21
May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels for the next three days (19 - 21 May).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds were
steady near 330 - 360 km/s. IMF total field strength values were steady
near 3 - 6 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -5 nT. 
The phi angle remained oriented is a positive (away) sector throughout
the period.
 
.Forecast...
Background solar wind parameters are expected to persist on days one and
two (19 - 20 May) with a slight enhancement in the 400 - 500 km/s range
likely on day three (21 May) due to the onset of a weak coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field is expected was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for days one and two
(19 - 20 May) with quiet to unsettled conditions on day three (21 May)
due to CH HSS effects.