:Product: 05190030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 19-May 21 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 19-May 21 2014

            May 19     May 20     May 21
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          2     
06-09UT        1          1          2     
09-12UT        1          1          2     
12-15UT        1          1          2     
15-18UT        1          1          2     
18-21UT        1          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 19-May 21 2014

              May 19  May 20  May 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 19-May 21 2014

              May 19        May 20        May 21
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackout during the forecast period.