:Product: 05180030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 18 0100 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2014

            May 18     May 19     May 20
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        2          2          1     
06-09UT        1          1          1     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        1          1          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2014

              May 18  May 19  May 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2014

              May 18        May 19        May 20
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for an R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackout, particularly from Region 2056.