:Product: 05171230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 17-May 19 2014

            May 17     May 18     May 19
00-03UT        1          2          2     
03-06UT        1          2          2     
06-09UT        1          1          1     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        1          1          1     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2014

              May 17  May 18  May 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2014

              May 17        May 18        May 19
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
due to potential flare activity from Regions 2056 (N05W72), 2063
(N11E11) and 2066 (S14W06).