:Product: 05151230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2014

            May 15     May 16     May 17
00-03UT        2          3          2     
03-06UT        2          3          1     
06-09UT        1          2          1     
09-12UT        1          2          1     
12-15UT        2          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        3          1          2     
21-00UT        3          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 
Unsettled conditions (less than G1) are expected on May 15-16 due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2014

              May 15  May 16  May 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2014

              May 15        May 16        May 17
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
during May 15 - 17 due to the flare potential of a couple of the sunspot
groups presently on the disk.