:Product: 05130030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 13-May 15 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 13-May 15 2014

            May 13     May 14     May 15
00-03UT        2          2          4     
03-06UT        1          1          3     
06-09UT        1          1          2     
09-12UT        1          1          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        1          3          2     
18-21UT        2          3          2     
21-00UT        2          4          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  A
less-than-G1-level disturbance is expected late May 14/early May15 due
to a coronal hole high-speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 13-May 15 2014

              May 13  May 14  May 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 13-May 15 2014

              May 13        May 14        May 15
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) radio blackout during May 13 - 15
due to the flare potential of some of the sunspot groups presently on
the disk.