:Product: 05090030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 09-May 11 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 09-May 11 2014

            May 09     May 10     May 11
00-03UT        4          3          3     
03-06UT        4          4          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        2          3          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 09-May 11 2014

              May 09  May 10  May 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 08 2014 1007 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 09-May 11 2014

              May 09        May 10        May 11
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
for the next three days (09-11 May) due to potential flare activity
mainly from Region 2056 (N04E44).