:Product: 05071230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 07-May 09 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 07-May 09 2014

            May 07     May 08     May 09
00-03UT        0          2          2     
03-06UT        1          3          3     
06-09UT        1          2          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        1          2          2     
18-21UT        1          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 07-May 09 2014

              May 07  May 08  May 09
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 06 2014 2209 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 07-May 09 2014

              May 07        May 08        May 09
R1-R2           40%           25%           25%
R3 or greater   10%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
during May 07-09. There is also a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio
blackout during May 07.