:Product: 05061230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2014

            May 06     May 07     May 08
00-03UT        1          4          2     
03-06UT        1          3          3     
06-09UT        1          2          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        1          3          2     
18-21UT        2          3          2     
21-00UT        3          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 
Active conditions (less than G1-Minor) are expected on May 07 due to a
CME passage.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2014

              May 06  May 07  May 08
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 06 2014 0903 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2014

              May 06        May 07        May 08
R1-R2           45%           40%           35%
R3 or greater   15%           10%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
during May 06-08 due to the flare potential of a few sunspot regions
presently on the disk. There is also a slight chance for an R3 (Strong)
flare during May 06-07.