:Product: 05041230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2014

            May 04     May 05     May 06
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        4          3          2     
06-09UT        4          2          1     
09-12UT        3          2          1     
12-15UT        1          2          1     
15-18UT        1          2          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        3          2          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2014

              May 04  May 05  May 06
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2014

              May 04        May 05        May 06
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.