:Product: 05021230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2014

            May 02     May 03     May 04
00-03UT        1          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          3     
06-09UT        1          1          3     
09-12UT        1          1          2     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          1     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2014

              May 02  May 03  May 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2014

              May 02        May 03        May 04
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
during May 02-04 due to sunspot region complexity.