:Product: 05010030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 01-May 03 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 01-May 03 2014

            May 01     May 02     May 03
00-03UT        4          3          2     
03-06UT        3          2          1     
06-09UT        3          2          1     
09-12UT        3          2          1     
12-15UT        3          2          1     
15-18UT        2          2          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: Isolated active periods (Below G1-Minor) are possible on day
1 (May 01) due to continued transient activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 01-May 03 2014

              May 01  May 02  May 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 01-May 03 2014

              May 01        May 02        May 03
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for an R1 (Minor) radio blackout exists for
the forecast period (May 01-03).