:Product: 04220030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 22-Apr 24 2014

            Apr 22     Apr 23     Apr 24
00-03UT        4          3          3     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        2          2          2     
09-12UT        3          2          2     
12-15UT        3          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        3          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2014

              Apr 22  Apr 23  Apr 24
S1 or greater   10%      5%      1%

Rationale: A slight chance for another S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
remains forecast through day one, before Region 2036 fully transits off
the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2014

              Apr 22        Apr 23        Apr 24
R1-R2           50%           40%           30%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            1%

Rationale: A decreasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio
blackouts exists for the forecast period (Apr 22-24) with a slight
chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event on day one (Apr 22) as
multiple active sunspot regions transit off the visible disk over the
next few days.