:Product: 04210030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 21-Apr 23 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 21-Apr 23 2014

            Apr 21     Apr 22     Apr 23
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          2     
03-06UT        4          3          2     
06-09UT        3          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        4          2          2     
21-00UT        3          3          2     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected early on
21 Apr due to continued coronal mass ejection (CME) influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 21-Apr 23 2014

              Apr 21  Apr 22  Apr 23
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms
exists for 21-22 Apr due to the favorable location of significant active
regions.
  
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 21-Apr 23 2014

              Apr 21        Apr 22        Apr 23
R1-R2           55%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout conditions are likely
with a chance for R3 or greater on 21 Apr due to a continued threat of
flare activity from significant active regions.  As the significant
active regions begin to rotate off the west limb on 22-23 Apr, only a
chance for R1-R2 conditions exists.