:Product: 04121230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 12-Apr 14 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 12-Apr 14 2014

            Apr 12     Apr 13     Apr 14
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          2     
03-06UT        5 (G1)     3          2     
06-09UT        5 (G1)     3          2     
09-12UT        3          3          2     
12-15UT        2          3          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        4          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 12-Apr 14 2014

              Apr 12  Apr 13  Apr 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 12-Apr 14 2014

              Apr 12        Apr 13        Apr 14
R1-R2           35%           40%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts through the forecast period, particularly from Region 2035 and
from returning Regions 2014 (N14, L=170) and 2017 (N10, L=148).