:Product: 05181230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2056 (N04W91, Esi/beta-gamma) produced
the largest event of the period, a long duration C3 flare that lasted
almost three hours. A narrow CME was associated with the event, but was
too far west to be geoeffective. All of the regions on the disk were
either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (18 -
20 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (18 - 20 May). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (18 - 20 May).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels due to a nominal solar
wind environment. Solar wind speeds were relatively steady in the 325 -
365 km/s range. IMF total field strength values were between 3 - 6 nT
and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -5 nT. The phi angle
was in a positive (away) sector for most of the period with some brief
variability to a negative (toward) sector at around 17/1830 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near background
levels for the next three days (18 - 20 May) due to a nominal solar wind
environment.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at predominately quiet
levels for the next three days (18 - 20 May) due to a nominal solar wind
environment.