:Product: 05180030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low.  Region 2066 (S15W12, Dao/beta) produced a C3/Sf
flare at 17/0239 UTC which was the largest event of the period.

Regions 2066 and 2068 (S17E26, Cro/beta) exhibited slight development
while the other regions on the visible disk were either stable or in
decay.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (18 -
20 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (18 - 20 May).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the
next three days (18 - 20 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels due to a nominal solar
wind environment.  Solar wind speeds were relatively steady in the 325 -
365 km/s range.  IMF total field strength values were between 4 - 6 nT
and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -3 nT.  The phi angle
was in a positive (away) sector orientation for most of the period with
some brief variability to a negative (toward) sector at around 17/1830
UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near background
levels for the next three days (18 - 20 May) due to a nominal solar wind
environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at predominately quiet
levels for the next three days (18 - 20 May) due to a nominal solar wind
environment.