:Product: 05171230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2066 (S14W06, Dao/beta) continued to show
growth during the past 12 hours and produced the largest event of the
period, a C3/Sf at 17/0239 UTC. Region 2063 (N11E11, Dai/beta) produced
a C2/Sf flare at 16/2016 UTC but showed consolidation of its
intermediate spots and decay in both its leader and trailer areas. New
Regions 2067 (S08W62, Bxo/beta) and 2068 (S18E41, Dro/beta) emerged on
the disk during the period. All other regions on the disk were either
stable or showed slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (17-19 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, reaching a peak flux value of 107 pfu at
16/1415 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (17-19 May).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days (17-19 May).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were at background levels due to a nominal
solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds were steady in the 325 - 375
km/s range. IMF total field strength values were steady near 5 - 7 nT
and the Bz reached a maximum southward component of -5 nT. The phi angle
was steady in a positive (away) sector orientation throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near background
levels for the next three days (17-19 May) due to a continued nominal
solar wind environment.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days
(17-19 May) due to a continued nominal solar wind environment.