:Product: 05170030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels this period.  The largest event was a
C5/Sf flare from Region 2056 (N06W63, Esi/beta-gamma) at 16/0704 UTC. 
Regions 2055 (N13W77, Cso/beta), 2060 (S14W32, Cao/beta-gamma), and 2064
(N09W00, Bxo/beta) all exhibited a minor decay trend this period. 
Regions 2056, 2063 (N10E17, Dai/beta), and newly numbered 2066 (S16E01,
Cao/beta) underwent minor development while the other regions on the
visible disk were stable.

All coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed this period were determined
to be non-Earth-directed.
     
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (17 - 19 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
reaching a peak flux value of 107 pfu at 16/1415 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (17 - 19 May).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the
next three days (17 - 19 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were at background levels due to a nominal
solar wind environment.  Solar wind speeds were steady in the 330 - 370
km/s range.  IMF total field strength values were steady near 6 nT and
the Bz reached a maximum southward component of -5 nT.  The phi angle
was steady in a positive (away) sector orientation throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near background
levels for the next three days (17 - 19 May) due to a continued nominal
solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days
(17 - 19 May) due to a continued nominal solar wind environment.