:Product: 05160030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels during the period. Region 2058
(S11W26, Axx/alpha) produced a C5 flare at 15/0256 UTC. Following the
flare, coronal darkening was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery NE of
Region 2060 (S15W18, Dai/beta-gamma) at approximately 15/0333 UTC, but
analysis suggests there was no appreciable coronal mass ejection (CME).
Regions 2060 and 2063 (N10E30, Dai/beta-gamma) also contributed to the
C-class flare activity, producing a C3 flare each. Regions 2063 and 2064
(N08E13, Dso/beta) both exhibited signs of separation between the leader
and trailer spots, while the remaining numbered spot groups were either
stable or indicated slight decay. A weak-intensity type II radio sweep
(est. shock velocity 878 km/s) was observed by the Sagamore Hill RSTN
site from approximately 15/2028 - 2038 UTC. The sweep was likely
associated with a non-Earth directed CME, first observed in Lasco C2
imagery at 15/2048 UTC off the East limb. No impacts at Earth are
expected from this CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (16 - 18 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (16 - 18
May).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (16 - 18
May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind continued at nominal levels through the period with solar
wind speed fluctuating between approximately 312 km/s and 362 km/s.
Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2206Z while the maximum southward component
of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1454Z. Phi angle was mostly in a positive
(away) sector throughout the period.

.Forecast...
A slight chance remains for a recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) to move into a geoeffective position and
cause a minor enhancement in the solar wind environment early on day one
(16 May), elevating winds slightly above 400 km/s. Conditions are
expected to return to nominal levels for days two and three (17 - 18
May) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during
the forecast period (16 May - 18 May). There is still chance for an
isolated unsettled period early on day one (16 May) if effects from the
positive polarity CH HSS materialize.