:Product: 05151230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels during the period.  Regions 2056
(N05W45, Esi/beta-gamma), 2058 (S10W19, Bxo/beta), 2060 (S15W12,
Dai/beta-gamma), and 2063 (N10E34, Dai/beta-gamma) all contributed
C-class flare activity.  The largest flare was a C8/1f at 14/1504 UTC
from Region 2056.  Slight growth was observed in Region 2064 (N08E19,
Cro/beta) and in the intermediate areas of Regions 2056 and 2063. 
Consolidation in the leader spot was observed in Region 2060 and
separation in the trailing spots was observed in Region 2063.  The rest
of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.  At approximately
15/0333 UTC, coronal darkening was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery NE of
Region 2060 associated with a C5 flare at 15/0256 UTC from Region 2058. 
Further analysis of a potential coronal mass ejection from this event is
on-going as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (15 - 17 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (15 - 17
May).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (15 - 17
May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind continued at nominal levels through the period with wind
speed fluctuating between approximately 330 km/s and 360 km/s.  Total
field was fairly steady between 4 nT and 6 nT while the Bz component did
not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.  Phi angle was mostly in a positive
(away) sector throughout the period.

.Forecast...
A recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is
expected to cause a minor enhancement in the solar wind environment by
late on day one (15 May), elevating winds slightly above 400 km/s.
Conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced through day two (16
May), then return to nominal levels on day three (17 May).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels becoming
unsettled with a chance for active levels late in the period on day 1
(15 May) as a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a
geoeffective position. Day 2 (16 May) is expected to begin the period
at unsettled levels, then return to mostly quiet conditions by midday as
CH HSS effects begin to subside. Quiet conditions are expected
on day 3 (17 May).