:Product: 05150030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2056 (N05W37, Eai/beta-gamma)
again produced the largest flare of the period, a slow-rise C8/1f flare
at 14/1504 UTC. This region exhibited slight growth in its intermediate
spot area and developed increased polarity mixing as well. Region 2063
(N10E41, Dao/beta) and Region 2060 (S14W05, Dac/beta-gamma) were also
responsible for low level C-class activity. Region 2063 continued to
exhibit moderate growth, especially in the intermediate spot area.
Region 2064 (N08E26, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period. The rest
of the numbered regions were either stable or in decay. An approximately
13° long filament, centered near S10E38, was observed in Gong H-alpha
imagery, lifting off the southeastern quadrant of the visible disk from
14/0522 - 0734 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was first
observed in Lasco C2 imagery at 14/0800 UTC, but analysis indicated that
the ejecta was directed too far east to have any notable impact on
Earth. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (15 - 17 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (15 - 17
May).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (15 - 17
May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions continued at nominal levels with solar wind speeds
ranging from approximately 320 km/s to 381 km/s. Total field strength
exhibited a slow but steady climb from 2 nT to end of period values of 6
nT while the Bz component varied between +6 nT and a maximum southward
deflection of -4 nT.  Phi angle remained in a mostly positive (away)
orientation throughout the period .

.Forecast...
A recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is
expected to cause a minor enhancement in the solar wind environment by
midday on day one (15 May), elevating winds slightly above 400 km/s,
based on analysis of previous STEREO B data. Conditions are expected to
remain slightly enhanced through day two (16 May), then return to
nominal levels on day three (17 May).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels becoming
unsettled with a chance for active levels late in the period on day one
(15 May) as a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a
geoeffective position. Day two (16 May) is expected to begin the period
at unsettled levels, then return to quiet to unsettled conditions by
midday as CH HSS effects begin to subside. Quiet conditions are expected
on day three (17 May) as CH HSS effects taper off.