:Product: 05131230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels with only a few low level C-class
flares from Regions 2060 (S16E16, Dac/beta-gamma) and 2056 (N05W16,
Ekc/beta).  Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spots of
Regions 2055 (N13W30, Ehi/beta) and 2060.  The rest of the spotted
regions were either stable or in decay.  No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) and a slight chance for X-class (R3 (Strong)) flare
activity over the next three days (13 - 15 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (13 - 15
May).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (13 - 15
May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed was in decline during the period from approximately 460
km/s to 350 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1 nT to 4 nT with the Bz
component between +/- 3 nT.  Phi angle was mostly negative (towards)
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels through
the rest of the UTC day on day one (13 May).  Another minor solar wind
enhancement is expected on day two (14 May) with the onset of a
co-rotating interaction region preceding a recurrent positive-polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) that is expected late on day
two/early on day three (15 May).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the rest of the
UTC day on day one (13 May).  By Mid to late on day two (14 May), quiet
to unsettled levels with possible isolated active periods is expected
with the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by a
CH HSS.  Quiet to active levels are expected to persist through day
three (15 May).