:Product: 05130030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels as only low-level C-class x-ray flares
and optical subflares were observed. Region 2062 (S06W43, Dao/beta)
exhibited slight growth and Region 2060 (S16E22, Dac/beta-gamma)
displayed growth and consolidation in its leader spots. Region 2056
(N05W09, Eko/beta) showed magnetic simplification during the period. The
remaining six spot groups were either stable or displayed slight decay.
Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in Lasco C2/C3 imagery
during the period, one north and one south, but neither were expected to
be on the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed this period.
    
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) and a slight chance for X-class (R3 (Strong)) flare
activity over the next three days (13 - 15 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at normal levels for the next three days (13 - 15 May).  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (13 - 15 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a
negative-polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) for the first
half of the period. Solar wind speeds slowly increased from initial
values near 400 km/s to values near 460 km/s. IMF total field strength
values peaked at 7 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -4
nT. The phi angle was steady in a negative-polarity (toward) sector
orientation throughout the period. Just after midday, conditions began a
gradual decline to the current background conditions, with solar wind
speeds just under 380 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at mostly background 
values through day one (13 May).  Another minor solar wind enhancement
is expected on day two (14 May) with the onset of a co-rotating
interaction region preceding a recurrent positive-polarity CH HSS that
is expected late on day two/early on day three (15 May).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period
as weak CH HSS effects subsided.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on day one
(13 May). Day two (14 May) should begin with predominately quiet levels,
but conditions are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled with a
chance for active conditions by the end of the period with the onset of
an expected CIR. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to last
into day three (15 May) as a positive-polarity CH HSS moves into a
geoeffective position.