:Product: 05121230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2056 (N05W02, Eki/beta-gamma)
produced the largest events of this period, a pair of C3/Sf flares at
11/1714 UTC and 11/1916 UTC, respectively.

Region 2060 (S16E29, Dac/beta-gamma) exhibited moderate overall growth
this period while Region 2056 began to exhibited minor decay in its
intermediate spot area.  The other regions on the visible disk were
either stable or in minor decay.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this
period.
    
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare
activity over the next three days (12 - 14 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (12 - 14 May).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next
three days (12 - 14 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar wind
speeds slowly increased from initial values near 400 km/s to
end-of-period values near 440 km/s.  IMF total field strength values
peaked at 7 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -5 nT. 
The phi angle was steady in a negative (toward) sector orientation
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on day
one (12 May) due to continued CH HSS influence with mostly background 
values likely by day two (13 May) as CH HSS effects subside.  Another
minor solar wind enhancement is expected on day three (14 May) with the
onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a recurrent
positive polarity CH HSS that is expected outside of this forecast
period.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to weak CH
HSS effects.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on day one (12 May) due to waning CH HSS influence. 
Predominately quiet conditions on day two (13 May) are expected to
increase to quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions with
the onset of a CIR on day three (14 May).