:Product: 05111230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2058 (S13E38, Cao/beta)
produced a C6/2n flare at 11/0443 UTC and Region 2055 (N12W03, Eko/beta)
produced a C4 flare at 10/2354 UTC, which were the largest events of the
period.

Region 2058 was divided into two separate regions this period with the
northwestern sunspot cluster remaining Region 2058 and the southeastern
spot cluster newly-designated as Region 2060 (S17E45, Cai/beta).  Region
2056 (N04E09, Eki/beta-gamma) and 2060 exhibited minor development and
were the most magnetically complex regions this period.  New Region 2061
(S24E71, Bxo/beta) and 2062 (S09W24, Cro/beta) were numbered this
period.  The other regions on the visible disk were either stable or
decaying.

All detected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) this period were determined
to be non-Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare
activity over the next three days (11 - 13 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (11 - 13 May).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next
three days (11 - 13 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of continued influence from
a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar wind
speeds slowly increased from initial values near 340 km/s to
end-of-period values near 400 km/s, reaching a peak near 420 km/s at
around 11/0815 UTC.  IMF total field values ranged were steady in the
5-8 nT range and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -7 nT.  The
Phi angle was steady in a negative (toward) sector orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to background levels
over the next three days (11 - 13 May) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels
with an isolated period of active conditions (11/0000-0300 UTC) due to
CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of day one (11 May) and day two (12 May) as CH HSS
influence subsides.  Predominately quiet conditions are expected by day
three (13 May) due to a nominal solar wind environment.