:Product: 05101230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels despite an overall increase in
solar activity.  Region 2056 (N05E22, Ehi/beta-gamma) produced a
long-duration C8/1n flare at 10/0702 UTC which was the largest event of
this period.  In addition, Region 2058 (S15E52, Eai/beta-gamma) produced
a long-duration C7/1f flare at 09/1501 UTC.  A Type-II radio sweep with
an estimated velocity of 960 km/s was observed in conjunction with a
C2/Sf flare from Region 2052 (S12W53, Bxo/beta) at 10/0939 UTC.

Region 2055 (N12E10, Eho/beta-gamma) and Region 2056 both began to a
exhibit minor overall decay with separation in their trailer spot areas.
Region 2058 showed moderate growth both in areal extent and magnetic
complexity and it now joins Regions 2055 and 2056 as the most
magnetically complex regions on the visible disk.  New Region 2059
(N10E30, Hrx/alpha) was numbered this period but was otherwise
unremarkable.

Numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period but
analysis indicates that these CMEs were associated with activity on the
backside and thus none were Earth-directed.
     
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare
activity over the next three days (10 - 12 May) due to active region
complexity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced but remained well below
the S1 (Minor) threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (10 - 12 May).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to be at or near background levels for the next
three days (10 - 12 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of continued influence from
a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar
wind speeds were relatively steady in the 350 - 380 km/s range.  IMF
total magnetic field strength values ranged from 4 nT to 7 nT and the Bz
component ranged between +6 nT and -5 nT.  The phi angle remained steady
in a negative (toward) sector throughout the period.
 
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced due to continued
CH HSS influence for the next three days (10 - 12 May) with wind speeds
in the 300 - 400 km/s range.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
the remainder of day one (10 May) due to continued CH HSS effects. 
Predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for days two
and three (11 - 12 May) as CH HSS influence subsides.