:Product: 05100030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with several C-class events observed,
primarily from Region 2058 (S14E57, Eao/beta). This region produced the
largest event of the period, a C7/1f at 09/1501 UTC. Additional
sunspots, apparently associated with Region 2058, rotated into view this
period. Region 2055 (N12E18, Ehi/beta-gamma) exhibited minor growth in
its intermediate spot area and contributed a C1/Sf at 09/1148 UTC. The
other complex spot group on the disk, Region 2056 (N04E31,
Eki/beta-gamma), produced a C1/Sf at 09/0055 UTC. The region
indicated some minor development and spot separation in its large
trailer spot, thus losing its delta configuration. The other regions on
the disk showed little change.

At around 09/0221 UTC a filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery from behind the west limb and appeared to be associated with old
Region 2051 (S10, L=059) as seen in STEREO-A imagery. Type-II
(estimated 960 km/s) and Type-IV radio emissions were observed in
conjunction with this event. A subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME)
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery beginning at 09/0318
UTC. Analysis confirmed the back-sided origin of the resultant CME and
it is not expected to be geoeffective.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 /
Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (10 - 12 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit were slightly enhanced, but remained well below the S1 (Minor)
alert threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
for the next three days (10 - 12 May).  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to be at or near background levels for the next three
days (10 - 12 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds
averaged about 380 km/s +/- 25 km/s through the period. IMF total field
values peaked at 8 nT early and slowly decreased to 5 nT by about
09/1200 UTC. The Bz component was variable between +/- 7 nT through
09/0950 UTC when it turned predominately northward averaging 4 - 5 nT
through the end of the period. The phi angle was predominately in a
negative (toward) sector with periods of variability between negative to
positive (away) from 09/0000-0450 UTC and again from 09/0950-09/1650
UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three
days (10 - 12 May) due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to negative
polarity CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated periods of active conditions possible for day one (10 May)
due to continued CH HSS effects. A decrease in geomagnetic field
activity is expected on days two and three (11 - 12 May) as CH HSS
influences subside, resulting in mostly quiet to unsettled conditions.