:Product: 05091230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2058 (S15E64, Eao/beta)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 09/0819 UTC which was the largest event of the
period.  Additional sunspots associated with Region 2058 rotated into
view this period.  Region 2055 (N12E25, Ehi/beta-gamma) exhibited minor
growth in its intermediate spot area and Region 2056 (N04E36,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) showed minor development in its trailer spot area.
The other regions on the disk were relatively stable.

At around 09/0221 UTC a filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery from behind the west limb and appeared to be associated with old
Region 2051 (S10, L=059) as seen in STEREO-A imagery.  Type-II
(estimated 960 km/s) and Type-IV radio emissions were observed in
conjunction with this event.  A subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME)
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery beginning at 09/0318
UTC but this CME is not expected to be Earth-directed.
  
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (09 - 11 May)

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux were slightly enhanced but remained well below
the S1 (Minor) alert threshold.
 
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
for the next three days (09 - 11 May).  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to be at or near background levels for the next three
days (09 - 11 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.  Solar wind speeds
slowly increased from initial values near 340 km/s to end-of-period
values near 395 km/s.  IMF total field values peaked at 9 nt and Bz
reached a maximum southward component of -9 nT.  The phi angle was
relatively steady in a negative (toward) sector throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three
days (09 - 11 May) due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to negative
polarity CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated periods of active conditions possible for days one and two
(09 - 10 May) due to continued CH HSS effects.  A decrease in
geomagnetic field activity is expected on day three (11 May) as CH HSS
influence subsides, causing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions.