:Product: 05090030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 2056 (N04E44,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M5/2b (R2-Moderate) flare at 08/1007
UTC. Associated with this event were moderate radio emissions in the
1415 MHz to 15.4 GHz range including a 390 sfu Tenflare. No coronal mass
ejection (CME) was apparent with the M5 in LASCO or STEREO imagery.
Region 2056 showed gradual spot and penumbral growth and indicated mixed
polarities in its intermediate and trailer portions including a strong
delta in its large trailer spot. A few low-level C-class x-ray events
were also observed from new Region 2058 (S12E69, Hax/alpha) which
rotated onto the disk this period. The remaining seven numbered regions
showed little change during the period. There were no Earth-directed
CMEs detected during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at predominately low levels during
the next three days (09-11 May) with an increasing chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal
levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained slightly enhanced, but well below event threshold levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (09-11 May). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain
slightly enhanced during the period, but below the S1 (Minor) event
threshold.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind data, measured at the ACE satellite, indicated variable winds
between near 335 km/s to 390 km/s. IMF Bt varied between a midday low of
about 1 nT to a high value at 08/0730 UTC of 12 nT. IMF Bz was variable
but remained mostly negative reaching a maximum southward deviation of
-11 nT at 08/0730 UTC. IMF Phi data indicated a variable component
between a positive (away) and negative (towards) orientation through the
period.

.Forecast...
Nominal wind conditions are expected on day one (09 May). An increase in
solar wind speed is expected on days two and three (10-11 May) with the
arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
for the first few periods and then settle to mostly quiet levels on day
one (09 May). Field conditions on days two and three (10-11 May) are
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, due to recurrent CH HSS effects.