:Product: 05081230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 2056 (N04E49, Dko/beta)
produced an M5/2b flare at 08/1007 UTC associated with a 390 sfu
Tenflare. As of the time of this report, there was no coronagraph data
available to determine if there was an Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection associated with the M5 flare. Region 2056 showed gradual spot
and penumbral growth and some mixed polarities in its intermediate and
trailer portions during the period. Old Region 2051 (S09, L=060)
continued to produce flares from beyond the west limb, the largest of
which was an M1 at 07/1629 UTC. The remaining seven numbered regions
showed little change during the period. There were no Earth-directed
CMEs detected during the period, the M5 flare notwithstanding.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during May 08-10 with a chance for
an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal
levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
became slightly enhanced beginning late on May 07 associated with flare
activity from old Region 2051.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (May 08-10). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain
slightly enhanced during the period, but below the S1 (Minor) event
threshold.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated a transient arrival at approximately 07/2134 UTC
(source region unclear at this time). The transient arrival was
accompanied by a modest increase in wind speed (331 to 378 km/s), IMF Bt
(3 nT jump), and temperature. IMF Bz was mostly southward prior to the
transient arrival, then became more southward following the arrival
(peak southward deflection 11 nT at around 08/0730 UTC). IMF Bz became
variable after approximately 08/0740 UTC. IMF Phi data indicated a
mostly positive-polarity (away) solar sector until approximately 08/0400
UTC, then became variable for the rest of the period.

.Forecast...
A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected by late on May 08
as current transient effects gradually abate. Nominal conditions are
expected on May 09. An increase in solar wind speed is expected on May
10 with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on May
08, with a decreasing trend, as transient effects gradually abate.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on May 09.
A return to quiet to active levels is expected on May 10 due to
recurrent CH HSS effects.