:Product: 05080030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. The largest solar event of the period was a
parting shot, M1/Sf flare from Region 2051 (S09, L=60) which has rotated
around the western limb. There are currently eight numbered sunspot
regions on the disk and the overall trend was one of slight decay or
stability. Region 2056 (N04E56, Dko/beta-gamma) appeared to contain
mixed polarities in its follower spots and was classified with an
increased magnetic complexity as a result. There were several coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery, however, none of
them are anticipated to have a geoeffective component due to the
location of the source region around the western limb.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares during the period (08-10 May).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels but has shown a slight enhancement as a
result of the M1/Sf Flare at 07/1629 UTC from Region 2051.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (May 08-10). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain
slightly elevated through the period, but below event thresholds.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated nominal solar wind conditions until 07/2135 UTC when
an increase in wind speed, temperature, density and IMF Bt was observed.
Wind speed displayed a gradual decrease from 352 km/s to approximately
330 km/s prior to the enhancement. Wind speed then reached a peak of 378
km/s late in the period as a result of the weak enhancement. IMF Bt
ranged between 1 nT and 8 nT while IMF Bz reached a low value of -5 nT.
IMF Phi data indicated a positive-polarity (away) solar sector during
most of the period punctuated by brief intervals of variable solar
sector orientation.

.Forecast...
An increase in solar wind speed is expected during the period (May
08-10) with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
(less than G1-Minor) on days one and two (08-09 May) and quiet to active
levels on day three (10 May) due to anticipated influence from recurrent
CH HSS features.