:Product: 05071230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 2051 (S09, L=060) remained the
principal flare producer during the period. It produced an M1/Sf flare
(R1-Minor) at 06/2209 UTC as well as occasional C-class flares from just
beyond the west limb. A loop prominence system was visible near S10W90
during 06/1858-1943 UTC, following a long-duration C4 flare at 06/1735
UTC from Region 2051. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were associated with
the long-duration C4 flare and the M1/Sf flare from Region 5021, but
neither were Earth-directed; nor were other CMEs observed during the
period. There were nine numbered regions on the disk, most of which were
either stable or in a state of gradual decay, including newly-numbered
Region 2057 (N16E73, Hsx/alpha). The exception was Region 2055 (N10E46,
Dso/beta) which showed minor penumbral development in its trailer
portion.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (May 07-09) with
a chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate). There will also
be a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on May 07.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (May 07-09). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels during the period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated nominal solar wind conditions during the period. Wind
speed gradually decreased from 396 km/s to 329 km/s during the course of
the day. IMF Bt gradually decreased from 5 nT to 2 nT during the period.
IMF Bz was mostly northward until around 07/0400 UTC, then became
variable with minor north-south variations for the rest of the period.
IMF Phi data indicated a positive-polarity (away) solar sector during
most of the period punctuated by brief intervals of variable solar
sector orientation.

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on May 07. An increase in
solar wind speed is expected during May 08-09 with the arrival of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on May 07. An increase to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on May 08-09, with a slight chance
for active levels (less than G1-Minor), due to the influence of a
recurrent CH HSS.