:Product: 05060030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C8
flare from an unnumbered region beginning to emerge around the
northeastern limb. Regions 2047 (S17W68, Cao/beta) and 2049 (S07W34,
Dac/beta-gamma) showed signs of decay in their intermediate and follower
spots. Region 2053 (N10E26, Dao/beta) displayed penumbral development in
its follower spots as well as consolidation in its leader. Region 2055
(N10E67, Dao/beta) was numbered today. There were no Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in imagery during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3 or
greater) flare on days one and two (06-07 May) and expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on day three (08 May).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (06-08 May). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next
three days (06-08 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated continued waning CME effects. Solar
wind speeds were variable in the 340-420 km/s range, with a peak speed
of 425 km/s at 05/2150 UTC. IMF total field strength values ranged
between 2 nT and 10 nT while the Bz component ranged between +5 nT and
-8 nT throughout the period. Phi angle remained stable in a negative
(toward) solar sector until the end of the period. Just before 05/2200
UTC, Phi angle switched to a positive (away) sector, where it remained
through the end of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three
days (06-08 May) with the onset of a weak, positive polarity coronal
hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) on 06 May and with the arrival of the 03
May glancing blow CME late on 06 May/early 07 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet with
isolated periods of unsettled activity for most of day one (06 May). A
glancing blow CME from 03 May is expected to arrive late on day one to
early on day two (07 Apr) causing quiet to unsettled levels with active
conditions likely. Day three (08 May) should see conditions remain at
quiet to unsettled levels as CME effects persist.