:Product: 05051230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2051 (S09W71,
Dac/beta-gamma-delta) produced a C9 flare at 04/1231 UTC which was the
largest event of the period.  Region 2051 showed little overall change
this period but remains the most magnetically complex region on the
visible disk.  Regions 2049 (S07W28, Dkc/beta-gamma) and 2053 (N10E33,
Cao/beta) exhibited minor development this period while Region 2047
(S17W61, Dao/beta) continued to decay.  New Region 2055 (N11E75,
Hsx/alpha) began to rotate across the east limb and into view this
period but likely contains additional sunspots that have yet to become
visible.  The other regions on the visible disk were stable and
otherwise unremarkable.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a filament eruption near
N21W90 at 04/1756 UTC was first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery at 04/2024 UTC but is not Earth-directed.  Other CMEs observed
this period were associated with activity on the far-side of the Sun.

      
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity for the next three days (05 - 07 May)
with a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity on days
one and two (05 - 06 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (05 - 07 May).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next
three days (05 - 07 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated waning CME effects.  Solar wind speeds
were relatively steady in the 340 - 380 km/s range.  IMF total field
strength values ranged between 1 nT and 10 nT while the Bz component
ranged between +7 nT and -8 nT throughout the period.  The phi angle
remained stable in a negative (toward) configuration.
  
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three
days (05 - 07 May) with the onset of a weak positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on 05 - 06 May and with the arrival of
the 03 May glancing-blow CME late on 06 May/early 07 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to waning CME
effects from the 29 Apr CME that arrival at Earth on 03/1650 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet with
isolated periods of unsettled activity on day one (05 May) and most of
day two (06 May) due to the onset of a weak positive polarity CH HSS in
addition to waning CME effects.  A glancing-blow CME from 03 May is
expected to arrive late on day two (06 May)/early on day three (07 May),
causing quiet to unsettled levels with active conditions likely.