:Product: 05050030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2051
(S09W64,Dac/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the most active region on
the visible disk. It produced multiple C-class flares, including a C9
flare at 04/1231 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. This
region began to show signs of decay, yet maintained a weak delta in its
trailer spots.  Region 2049 (S07W20, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced a C1/Sf
flare at 04/1601 UTC. Despite showing a decrease in overall areal
coverage, the region appeared to regain some mixed polarity magnetic
fields within its intermediate spots. Region 2047 (S17W54, Dao/beta)
also exhibited slight decay during the period and remained fairly
inactive. The remaining spot groups were stable or showed slight decay.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 04/0012 UTC, but was determined to be associated
with a backsided filament eruption and should have no impact on Earth.
An additional faint CME was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 04/0836 UTC departing from near the southwest limb,
but was determined to be a backsided event as well. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flare activity for the next three days (05 - 07 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be a normal levels for the next three days (05 - 07 May).  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (05 - 07 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced following the arrival
of the 29 Apr CME at 03/1650 UTC. Solar wind speeds began the period
near 340 km/s, then began varying between a low of 313 km/s and a peak
of 392 km/s. Speeds leveled off near 355 km/s by the end of the period.
IMF total field strength values varied between 0 and 11 nT, while the Bz
component reached a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT. Phi angle
remained in a primarily negative (towards) orientation with periodic
oscillations into the positive (away) sector.
  
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on days
one and two (05 - 06 May) as waning CME effects persist and a weak
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes
geoeffective early on day two. Solar wind parameters are expected to
become enhanced again late on day two (06 May) into the early periods of
day 3 (07 May) with the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels following the
arrival of the 29 Apr CME. Just after midday, conditions fell to quiet
to unsettled levels, where they remained through the end of the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
day one (05 May) and the first half of day two (06 May) due to residual
CME effects combined with the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
By late in the period on day two and early on day three (07 May),
conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with
the anticipated arrival of a glancing-blow CME from 03 May.