:Product: 05041230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2051 (S09W57,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a C2 flare at 04/0905 UTC which was the
largest event of the period.  Region 2051 exhibited minor development
while the other regions on the visible disk were relatively stagnant. 
New Region 2054 (S11E28, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period but was
otherwise unremarkable.  An asymmetric-halo coronal mass ejection (CME)
was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 03/2048
UTC and was associated with a filament eruption centered near N10W65 at
04/1755 UTC.  Subsequent WSA-ENLIL model output and forecaster analysis
indicate that this CME does not have an Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flare activity for the next three days (04 - 06 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be a normal levels
for the next three days (04 - 06 May).  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days
(04 - 06 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels to begin the period and
became enhanced with the arrival of the 29 Apr CME at 04/1650 UTC. 
Solar wind speeds increased from initial values near 300 km/s to 360
km/s during the initial arrival of the CME.  Solar wind speeds were
steady in the 320-375 km/s range for the remainder of the period.  IMF
total field strength values peaked at 10 nT and the Bz component reached
a maximum southward value of -9 nT during the initial arrival of the
CME.
  
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and
two (04 - 05 May) as CME effects continue to subside and a weak positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective
early on day two.  Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced
again late on day three (06 May) with the anticipated arrival of the 03
May CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet to unsettled levels but
increased to active levels (04/0300-0900 UTC) due to the arrival of the
29 Apr CME.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
the remainder of day one (04 May) due to diminishing CME effects.  Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on day two (05 May) with diminishing
CME effects combined with the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. 
Quiet conditions early on day three (06 May) are expected to increase to
unsettled levels late in the day with the anticipated arrival of a
glancing-blow CME from 03 May.