:Product: 05031230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been low.  Region 2051 (S10W44, Dac/beta-gamma-delta)
produced a long-duration C5 flare at 03/0608 UTC which was the largest
event of the period.  Region 2052 (S11E42, Dac/beta) exhibited moderate
development this period while the other regions on the disk were stable.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the long-duration C5 flare
was observed off the west limb in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at
03/0612 UTC, but further data is needed to determine if this CME has a
partial Earth-directed component.
 
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flare activity for the next three days (03 - 05 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
for the next three days (03 - 05 May).  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days
(03 - 05 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels.  Solar wind speeds
decreased from initial values near 360 km/s to end-of-period values near
310 km/s.  IMF total field strength values were steady between 1-3 nT
and Bz ranged between +4 nT and -1 nT.
  
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels for
the remainder of day one (03 May).  A solar wind enhancement (450-550
km/s) is likely for days two and three (04 - 05 May) with the
anticipated arrival of the 30 Apr CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the remainder of
day one (03 May), increasing to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight
chance for active conditions for days two and three (04 - 05 May) with
the anticipated arrival of the 30 Apr CME.