:Product: 05021230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2047 (S18W20, Dac/beta-gamma) showed
significant spot and penumbral development as well as an increase in
magnetic complexity. It produced C-class flares late in the period
including a C4/Sf at 02/0940 UTC. SDO/AIA 193 images showed a possible
coronal mass ejection (CME) with the C4 flare as coronal dimming was
evident to the south of Region 2047 during the course of the event. We
await LASCO and STEREO coronagraph images to determine if an
Earth-directed CME was associated with this event. Minor spot and
penumbral development occurred in the interior portion of Region 2049
(S07E08, Ekc/beta-gamma), but it was quiet in terms of flare production.
New Region 2051 (S09W29, Cai/beta) emerged in the southwest quadrant and
grew at a moderate pace. A small bipolar group emerged in the southeast
quadrant and was numbered as new Region 2052 (S11E56, Cro/beta). No
Earth-directed CMEs occurred during the period (the C4 event
notwithstanding).

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (May 02-04) with
a increased chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (May 02-04).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at background levels during the period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated nominal wind characteristics during the period. Wind
speed was in the 332 km/s to 392 km/s range. IMF Bt gradually decreased
from 8 nT to 2 nT as the period progressed. IMF Bz ranged from 6 nT to
-3 nT, and was northward during a majority of the period. IMF Phi data
indicated a positive-polarity (away) solar sector through the period.

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected during May 02-03. A
slow-moving CME, associated with a B9 flare on Apr 29, is expected to
arrive at Earth early on May 04. Increases in solar wind speed, IMF Bt,
and IMF Bz variability are expected on May 04 with the CME passage.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during May
02-03. Field activity is forecast to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on May 04, with a slight chance for active levels (less than
G1-Minor), due to an expected CME arrival.