:Product: 05020030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2050 (N12E17, Hax/alpha) produced a
B6 flare at 01/1749 UTC. Region 2047 (S18W13, Dsc/beta-gamma) increased
in both magnetic complexity and showed growth in its intermediate spots.
There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected in
satellite imagery during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (May 02-04) with
a chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) due to the
potential in Regions 2047 and 2049 (S07E15, Ekc/beta-gamma).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels during the period (May 02-04). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
remain at background levels during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment displayed background conditions. Wind speed
showed a gradual increase during the period with a range between 293 to
392 km/s. IMF Bt showed a decreasing trend with beginning values at 10
nT and end-of-period values near 4 nT. IMF Bz was mostly northward
throughout the period ranging between +8 and -6 nT. IMF phi data was
oriented in a positive-polarity (away) solar sector during the period.

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to persist for days one and
two (May 02-03). Early on day three (May 04), increased solar wind
parameters in wind speed, temperature, and density are expected due to
the anticipated arrival of the faint, slow-moving CME from 30 Apr that
resulted from the B9/Sf flare from Region 2047 at 29/2254 UTC.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two
(May 02-03). Quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions are expected early on day three (May 04) in response to the
30 Apr CME mentioned above.