:Product: 05011230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Regions 2047 (S18W06, Dai/beta), 2048
(N20W86, Dso/beta), and 2049 (S07E22, Dki/beta-gamma) produced mid-level
B-class flares during the period. Regions 2047 and 2049 showed minor
spot and penumbra development during the period, while the remaining
three spotted regions were largely stable. No Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections were detected during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low during the period (May 01-03) with a
slight chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (May 01-03). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at
background levels during the period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated a gradual recovery from a slow-moving transient
passage that began late on Mar 29. Wind speed ranged from 305 to 368
km/s during the period. IMF Bt was in the 6 to 10 nT range with a
gradual decrease during the second half of the period. IMF Bz was mostly
southward until approximately 30/1830 UTC (maximum southward deflection
-9 nT at 30/1307 UTC), then was variable in the +/- 8 nT range for the
rest of the period. IMF phi data indicated a positive-polarity (away)
solar sector during the period.

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected during the period (May
01-03).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels (less than
G1-Minor).

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
during May 01-02. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on
May 03.