:Product: 04300030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event was a B9/Sf flare
at 29/1056 UTC from Region 2048 (N20W65, Dso/beta). Region 2049 (S07E43,
Dki/beta-gamma) increased in magnetic complexity and showed development
in its intermediate spots. Region 2047 (S18E14, Dai/beta) showed signs
of growth and consolidation in its leader spots and intermediate spot
group development. The remaining spot groups were stable and
unremarkable. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
observed in satellite imagery during the period.
    
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low through the period (Apr 30 - May 02)
with a slight chance for an M-class flare (NOAA Scale R1/R2 -
Minor/Moderate).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels during the period (Apr 30 - May 02).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data displayed nominal solar wind conditions until late in the
period when an enhancement indicated the possible arrival of a coronal
hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed was steady, reaching a low
of 254 km/s at 29/0809 UTC, until late in the period when a gradual
increase was observed ending the period in the 300 km/s range. IMF Bt
ranged from 1 to 4 nT until approximately 29/1940 UTC when the total
field increased to a maximum value of 9 nT. IMF Bz was predominately
positive until late in the period when it dropped to -8 nT. IMF Phi data
began the period oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector but
shifted to a variable but mostly positive (away) sector at approximately
29/1300 UTC.

.Forecast...
Weak CH HSS influence is expected to persist on day one (30 Apr),
followed by a return to nominal wind conditions on day two (01 May) as
CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period between
29/2100-2400 due to the onset of CH HSS influence.
 
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day one (30 Apr) due to
weak CH HSS effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on
days two and three (01-02 May).