:Product: 04290030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a
C3/Sf flare at 28/1526 UTC from Region 2048 (N20W51, Dao/beta). Region
2048 showed indications of decay in its leader spots and consolidation
in its intermediate spots. Region 2047 (S18E28, Dso/beta) displayed
growth in its intermediate spots but did not produce any significant
flare activity. The remaining three numbered sunspot groups were stable
and unremarkable. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) detected in satellite imagery during the period.
 
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an
M-class flare (NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) for the next three
days (29 Apr - 01 May).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (29 Apr - 01
May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels for the forecast period (29 Apr
- 01 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were nominal for
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed steadily declined through the period
from a high value of 347 km/s at 28/0124 UTC to end-of-period speeds of
approximately 270 km/s. IMF Bt held relatively steady between 2 and 4
nT. The Bz component was predominately negative reaching a low value of
-3 nT. The Phi angle was variable until approximately 28/1430 UTC when
it settled into a mostly positive (away) orientation.

.Forecast...
A slight increase in wind speed is expected on day one (29 Apr) as Earth
comes under the influence of a weak, recurrent coronal
hole high-speed-stream (CH HSS). Slightly elevated wind speeds are
expected to persist into day two (30 Apr) followed by a return to
nominal wind conditions on day three (01 May) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled
conditions between 28/0300-0600 UTC.
 
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days one and two (29-30
Apr) due to weak CH HSS effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions is
predicted for day three (01 May).