:Product: 04280030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Three regions were numbered: Region 2048
(N20W37, Dai/beta), Regions 2049 (S07E71, Dao/beta), and 2050 (N12E73,
Hsx/alpha). The remaining spotted regions were stable. No Earth-directed
CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) for the next three
days (28-30 Apr).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for the next three days (28-30 Apr).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were nominal for
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed was in a steady decline from around
375 km/s to end-of-period speeds of about 320 km/s. IMF Bt held steady
near 4 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +/- 3 nT. The Phi
component indicated a mostly negative (toward) orientation throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be nominal for day
one (28 Apr). A slight increase in wind speed is expected by day two (29
Apr) as Earth comes under the influence of a weak, recurrent coronal
hole high-speed-stream (CH HSS).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the first day of the forecast
period (28 Apr). Days two and three (29-30 Apr) are predicted to be
quiet to unsettled due to weak CH HSS effects.