:Product: 04261230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with a few unremarkable low-level
C-class events observed across the disk and limb. Region 2045 (S24W08,
Cso/beta) produced a long duration C1 event at 26/0042 UTC. Another long
duration C1 event was observed off the SW limb at 26/0628 UTC. An
additional C1 event was observed off the NE limb at 26/0227 UTC. New
flux emerged near the SE limb. The four spotted regions on the disk
either exhibited little change or slight decay. No new regions were
numbered and no Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels for the next three days
(26-28 Apr) with a slight chance for M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 -
Minor/Moderate) on 26-27 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels at 25/1835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for day one (26 Apr) and normal to
moderate levels for days two and three (27-28 Apr). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at nominal
levels for the forecast period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated waning
conditions from a weak recurrent disturbance in the solar wind
environment. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from an average of
about 425 km/s at the beginning of the period to speeds near 375 km/s by
periods end. IMF Bt varied between 1 to 3 nT while the Bz component
exhibited extended periods of southward Bz at or near 3nT. The Phi
component oscillated between a positive (away) and negative (toward)
orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
A return to mostly nominal solar wind conditions is forecast for the
next three days (26-28 Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. 

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are forecast for the next three days (26-28
Apr).