:Product: 04260030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels unexpectedly early in the period. An
impulsive X1 X-ray event occurred at 25/0027 UTC from old Region 2035
(S13, L=224) which rotated around the west limb early on 23 April. An
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 753
km/s was also observed. A CME became visible in NASA SOHO LASCO C2/C3
imagery as well as in STEREO COR2 coronagraph data. Analysis indicates
that this event is not on the Sun-Earth line. Other than the isolated
X1, the few other flares during in the period were nominal C-level
events. The five spotted regions on the disk were quiet and either
exhibited little change or slight decay. No new regions were numbered.
In addition to the CME mentioned earlier, a few narrow CMEs were
observed, however none appeared to have Earthward components.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels for day one (26 Apr), with
a slight chance for M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate).
Very low levels are expected for days two and three (27-28 Apr).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels at 25/1835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to reach high levels again for day one (26 Apr). Days two and three
(27-28 Apr) should see flux peak in the moderate levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is also expected to
remain at nominal levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated waning
of a weak recurrent disturbance in the solar wind environment that had
been observed over the past few days. Solar wind speeds decreased
gradually from an average of ~450 km/s at the beginning of the period to
an observed value near 380 km/s. IMF Bt decreased from 6 nT to 4 nT. Bz
component varied, but extended periods of southward Bz at or near 4nT
were observed. The Phi component oscillated between a positive (away)
and negative (toward) orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
A return to mostly nominal solar wind conditions is forecast for the
next three days (26-28 Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. 

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are forecast for the next three days (26-28
Apr).