:Product: 04250030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2035, now around the West limb,
produced the largest event of the period, a C2 flare at 23/1016 UTC.
Solar X-ray background levels were at in the high B levels. The five
active regions currently on the solar disk were unremarkable and largely
inactive. Although a few narrow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for days one and two
(25-26 Apr), with a chance for M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 -
Minor/Moderate). Low levels are likely for day three (27 Apr) with a
chance remaining for M-class activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is also expected to
remain at nominal levels for the forecast period (25-27 Apr).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated the
influence of a weak recurrent disturbance in the solar wind environment.
Solar wind speeds averaged ~450 km/s. IMF Bt ranged from almost 6 nT to
as low as 2 nT while the Bz component varied to -5nT intermittently. Phi
oscillated between positive (away) and negative (toward) orientations
throughout the period, ending at a predominately negative angle.

.Forecast...
The negative polarity solar wind feature is forecast to continue to
influence the solar wind environment for days one (25 Apr). Wind speeds
near 500 km/s are expected with intermittent southward Bz as well. A
return to nominal conditions is forecast for days two and three (26-27
Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with unsettled levels early in
the period as expected.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected again for day one (25 Apr)
due to the weak recurrent negative polarity solar wind feature. Quiet
conditions are forecast for days two and three (26-27 Apr).