:Product: 04241230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2035 (S13, L224) produced the
largest event of the period, a C5 flare at 23/1306 UTC, as well as a
pair of C1 flares at 23/1518 UTC and 23/2043 UTC respectively. This
region has since rotated beyond the west limb, yet continues to produce
flare activity as it also produced a C2 flare at 24/1016 UTC. Region
2038 (S11W53, Dao/beta) exhibited signs of decay and was relatively
inactive. New Region 2046 (S17W71, Cao/beta) emerged on the disk during
the period and showed slight development over the past few hours. The
remaining spot groups were predominantly stable or were showing signs of
decay. Although a few narrow, mostly southward directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in Lasco imagery, no Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for days one and two
(24-25 Apr), with a chance for M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 -
Minor/Moderate). Low levels are likely for day three (26 Apr) with a
chance remaining for M-class activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is also expected to
remain at nominal levels for the forecast period (24-26 Apr).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated a
slightly agitated solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds began the
period near 415 km/s, but varied anywhere from 372 km/s to 471 km/s,
ending the period close to 450 km/s. IMF Bt ranged from almost 7 nT to
as low as 1 nT while the Bz component varied widely between +/- 6 nT.
Phi angle remained in a mostly negative (toward) orientation until
approximately 24/0313 UTC when it began oscillating between positive
(away) and negative (toward) through the end of the period.

.Forecast...
The negative polarity solar wind feature is forecast to continue to
influence the solar wind environment for days one and two (24-25 Apr).
Wind speeds near 550 km/s are expected with intermittent southward Bz as
well. A return to nominal conditions is forecast for day three (26 Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for days one and two (24-25
Apr) as the weak recurrent negative polarity feature in the solar
wind stream continues. Quiet conditions are forecast for day three (26
Apr).