:Product: 04240030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to a few nominal C-class flares.
Regions 2038 (S11W47, Dai/beta-gamma) and 2035 (S13W85, Ekc/beta-gamma)
remained the more magnetically complex regions. Regions 2035 produced
the largest event of the period, a C5 event at 23/1306 UTC. The
remaining spotted regions were either stable or showed slight decay. No
new regions were numbered. Many CMEs were observed during the period,
though all were either narrow limb events, or backsided. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are believed to exist at
this time.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for days one and two
(24-25 Apr), with a chance for M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 -
Minor/Moderate). Low levels are likely for day three (26 Apr) with a
chance remaining for M-class activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is also expected to
remain at nominal levels for the forecast period (24-26 Apr).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated
predominately nominal conditions. Bt increased slightly from around 1 nt
to 6 nT, and solar wind speeds averaged 410 km/s. Bz was mostly north,
with a few brief interludes southward to -5 nT. Phi angle remained in a
mostly negative (toward) orientation through the end of the period.

.Forecast...
A negative polarity solar wind feature is forecast for days one and two
(24-25 Apr) based on recurrence. Wind speeds near 550 km/s are expected
with intermittent southward Bz as well. Nominal conditions are forecast
for day three (26 Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for days one and two (24-25
Apr), due to a weak recurrent negative polarity feature in the solar
wind stream. Quiet conditions are forecast for day three (26 Apr).